Fire OblationTier 2
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
decks
3
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
10-10-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1370
· median 1362
· range 1163–1584
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1205
Q3 1376
1633
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
